Recently Congress and the White House agreed on a two-year budget agreement to avoid the latest debt ceiling crisis. While it is great to see that the two legislative branches and the White House avoided that issue, at least through next year’s elections, there is still no agreement on the Labor/HHS/Education Appropriation for FY20, raising the real possibility of a government shutdown for at least those Departments and the Social Security Administration. A long-time HHS lobbyist recently told me that she feels that the odds of a shutdown are greater than 50%. Whether that prediction is true or not, is uncertain at this point with Congress in recess until after Labor Day. What is certain is that next month will bring a feeling of unease among CMS staff and others affected by the budget impasse as they begin to contemplate the very real possibility of some type of disruption. HHS, except for FDA which is funded under USDA’s appropriation, managed to avoid the most recent shutdown but may not be as lucky this time.
Budget impasses, even without the actual shutdown occurring, have a very negative impact on agencies. First, impasses affect their ability to strategically manage programs and budgets. Often budget impasses are handled by a series of continuing resolutions (CRs)to avoid a shutdown. CRs, while preferable to a shutdown, can delay needed program and technical work and are largely responsible for the end of year spending rush that occurs, which is not an effective way of managing mission-critical requirements. Second, agencies get stuck in doing endless planning of “what if” scenarios. Examples are: what organizations will be impacted and how severely, who is an “essential” employee and who isn’t, what can be done to keep basic operations going?
Then if the shutdown actually occurs, it creates an extremely chaotic situation, not only during the shutdown but for months afterwards. Agencies like CMS with multiple funding streams have a bizarre situation where some programs are completely staffed, and others have only a skeleton crew. Contractors end up even worse, often having to lay off key staff because much of the Agency work grinds to a halt. Morale plummets on all sides and the good government gets washed away in a torrent of political posturing by both parties.
There are still a few more weeks before Congress returns, and they have a very short window after they are back to pass the remaining FY20 appropriations before the fiscal year ends on September 30. Let’s hope that enough members and the President have learned from the past shutdown debacles, and get the government fully funded for FY20. I’m not holding my breath.